Did late 1L acceptances struggle or not? Forum

[MissLucky]

The #1 person in my class was admitted off the waitlist.

how late in the game?

[09042014]

The #1 person in my class was admitted off the waitlist.

BUT BUT Desert Fox told me the LSAT was a good predictor of law school performance!!??

Good predictor doesn't mean 170 beats 169 every time. Good predictor means a large sample of 170s, beat a large sample of 169s by a small margin. Law school classes are filled with people with very similar LSAT scores. The margin of error for the LSAT is +/-3.

[ggocat]

The #1 person in my class was admitted off the waitlist.

BUT BUT Desert Fox told me the LSAT was a good predictor of law school performance!!??

I agree that it is a predictor, but it of course is not the only factor.

A couple of LSAT points difference probably has little predictive ability. Just look at the 25-50 percentile spread at schools, and it's often 5-6 points. Anyone who ever took a bunch of practice LSATs probably had more than a 5-6 point variation, and the score band for any person is 7 points (which, IIRC, is only 67% confidence level). I don't think you can make a big prediction based on whether you are a late admit with an LSAT a few points below median.

[ggocat]

The #1 person in my class was admitted off the waitlist.

how late in the game?

Not sure.

[Dead Ringer]

Know a girl who is a self-admitted long shot who will probably grade on to LR.

what does this mean?

Sorry, she was a self-admitted long shot to get in to the school and now she looks likely to grade on to law review. That means top 10% at my school.

[DeweyWins]

The #1 person in my class was admitted off the waitlist.

I finished #1 in my class and I'm roughly median for LSAT and GPA. I know a guy who was here on a full scholarship who finished well below median.

[unknownscholar]

The thing about having to make last minute arrangements is that it then becomes difficult to get into a routine: getting familiar with your new neighborhood, classmates, grocery store, apartment, transportation system (if you're going somewhere where there is one), etc. This may be the source of a person's confidence. No one wants to be roaming around feeling brand new. I imagine it gives people an easy excuse to start thinking of all the differences between them and everyone else around them, not the least of which will be the numbers (as others have mentioned).

I think that if there is a correlation, then it probably has a lot to do with the advantage early admits have in just adjusting mentally, emotionally, and so on, to the task at hand, which may have nothing to do with formal 0L prep. I wouldn't be at all surprised if those that do well under these circumstances are those who "act as if" they'd be starting anyhow. From what I've read, it's supposed to be pretty critical to success at anything you've decided to pursue.

[verdandi]

Of the two kids I know were admitted off the waitlist: one was admitted the day before school began, and ended the first semester with a 3.91. The other was admitted a week or so before school began and is summering as a 1L in a big DC law firm, sans connections. So no, waitlists do not doom you to mediocrity.

One thing to keep in mind, for all of those on waitlists: kids at at HYS are not categorically smarter than kids at CCN; kids at CCN are not categorically smarter than kids at BMVP or NCDG, and the T14 are not categorically smarter than those at T1 schools more generally. The difference between a 167 and a 169, which, GPA being equal, could be the difference btw a T14 denial and an acceptance, is a few questions on the LSAT, which could be attributed to the side of the bed you woke up on on test day, what you ate for breakfast, and how nervous you felt; not how smart you are. Even high GPAs don't necessarily correlate with legal ability: NO ONE has taken a law course in undergrad, so who knows who will be able to excel at law? GPA and LSAT are just proxies that, in a general sense, predict ability. But they are not destiny: anyone, even someone with a weak LSAT and a poor GPA, can outwork their classmates and do well in law school if they are passionate about it.