Let's Talk 9th Circuit! Forum

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone have a sense of which district judges in the ninth might be elevated if there were a dem President in two years?

Pitts and Lin are probably the most highly regarded young Biden appointees on ND Cal. Whether that makes them likely to get elevated, dunno.

Agree they are the most regarded. However, it's unfortunate for them that all the northern California circuit judges are also quite young. Koh is the oldest at 56. By the time any of them take senior status, Pitts and Lin will probably be deemed too old.

I don’t think there has to be a NorCal vacancy though - Koh herself replaced Paez (who’s in Pasadena), and de Alba (EDCA) replaced Watford (Pasadena).

IMO the bigger issue is that there likely won’t be many vacancies if there is a Dem Pres/Senate in 2029 - if Gould/Wardlaw/Rawlinson continue to refuse to go senior, as they did under Biden, the only Dem appointees who will be eligible before 2032 are Murguia, Christen, and Nguyen.

Murguia would probably go senior if a Dem president could confirm her successor - of the Dem DAZ appointees, only Lanham and Desai seem plausible based on age, and Desai is out b/c his sister’s already on CA9 and there’s a rule against immediate family members being on the same court. Kelly/Gallego are both pretty conservative Dems, so Lanham’s career as a federal prosecutor might appeal to them.

With Christen, the only DAK Dem appointee (Gleason) is too old. I don’t know enough about the AK Supreme Court justices to say if they could be possible candidates. My two cents are just that if the AK senators are Peltola and Murkowski (and a Peltola win seems necessary for the Dems to win/keep the senate), I would think they might want either the first Native American/Alaskan circuit judge or someone with experience representing Native Alaskans.

Nguyen won’t be eligible to go senior until May 2030, and I think she’s unlikely to go senior less than 2 years into her term as chief.

Fair points. But given that SoCal is down 1 judge already as you noted, I have a hard time believing they will again dip into that allocation. We will see. To the original question, I've heard that both Lin and Pitts are good bosses and people should consider working for them regardless of their potential elevation.

The only CA-based CA9 judges that could go senior are Wardlaw, Callahan, and M. Smith. Each of them has particular quirks about their profile that makes it seem unlikely that Pitts or Lin would be their successor. Wardlaw, for example, has such strong SoCal ties that it wouldn't be surprising if she conditioned stepping down on maintaining that seat in Pasadena.

SoCal isn’t actually down a CA9 seat though - Koh was nominated with Sanchez and Thomas to replace Paez/Fletcher/Berzon. Koh and Sanchez sit in SF, just as Fletcher and Berzon do, while Thomas is in Pasadena like Paez. A little weird that Koh technically succeeded Paez whereas Thomas technically succeeded Fletcher, but no net change in NorCal v. SoCal seats.

I can’t see Callahan willingly going senior under a Dem (I’m honestly shocked that she hasn’t gone senior under Trump, tbh), whereas I’m pretty sure Smith has publicly said that he’ll never go senior.

Given how liberal Wardlaw is, you’d think she would’ve gone senior under Biden. In fact, an annoying number of Clinton appointees on the Ninth and elsewhere are similarly still active, which is like playing with fire given how hard it is to get a Dem majority in the senate.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone have a sense of which district judges in the ninth might be elevated if there were a dem President in two years?

Pitts and Lin are probably the most highly regarded young Biden appointees on ND Cal. Whether that makes them likely to get elevated, dunno.

Agree they are the most regarded. However, it's unfortunate for them that all the northern California circuit judges are also quite young. Koh is the oldest at 56. By the time any of them take senior status, Pitts and Lin will probably be deemed too old.

I don’t think there has to be a NorCal vacancy though - Koh herself replaced Paez (who’s in Pasadena), and de Alba (EDCA) replaced Watford (Pasadena).

IMO the bigger issue is that there likely won’t be many vacancies if there is a Dem Pres/Senate in 2029 - if Gould/Wardlaw/Rawlinson continue to refuse to go senior, as they did under Biden, the only Dem appointees who will be eligible before 2032 are Murguia, Christen, and Nguyen.

Murguia would probably go senior if a Dem president could confirm her successor - of the Dem DAZ appointees, only Lanham and Desai seem plausible based on age, and Desai is out b/c his sister’s already on CA9 and there’s a rule against immediate family members being on the same court. Kelly/Gallego are both pretty conservative Dems, so Lanham’s career as a federal prosecutor might appeal to them.

With Christen, the only DAK Dem appointee (Gleason) is too old. I don’t know enough about the AK Supreme Court justices to say if they could be possible candidates. My two cents are just that if the AK senators are Peltola and Murkowski (and a Peltola win seems necessary for the Dems to win/keep the senate), I would think they might want either the first Native American/Alaskan circuit judge or someone with experience representing Native Alaskans.

Nguyen won’t be eligible to go senior until May 2030, and I think she’s unlikely to go senior less than 2 years into her term as chief.

Fair points. But given that SoCal is down 1 judge already as you noted, I have a hard time believing they will again dip into that allocation. We will see. To the original question, I've heard that both Lin and Pitts are good bosses and people should consider working for them regardless of their potential elevation.

The only CA-based CA9 judges that could go senior are Wardlaw, Callahan, and M. Smith. Each of them has particular quirks about their profile that makes it seem unlikely that Pitts or Lin would be their successor. Wardlaw, for example, has such strong SoCal ties that it wouldn't be surprising if she conditioned stepping down on maintaining that seat in Pasadena.

SoCal isn’t actually down a CA9 seat though - Koh was nominated with Sanchez and Thomas to replace Paez/Fletcher/Berzon. Koh and Sanchez sit in SF, just as Fletcher and Berzon do, while Thomas is in Pasadena like Paez. A little weird that Koh technically succeeded Paez whereas Thomas technically succeeded Fletcher, but no net change in NorCal v. SoCal seats.

I can’t see Callahan willingly going senior under a Dem (I’m honestly shocked that she hasn’t gone senior under Trump, tbh), whereas I’m pretty sure Smith has publicly said that he’ll never go senior.

Given how liberal Wardlaw is, you’d think she would’ve gone senior under Biden. In fact, an annoying number of Clinton appointees on the Ninth and elsewhere are similarly still active, which is like playing with fire given how hard it is to get a Dem majority in the senate.

Judge de Alba replaced Watford which is how SoCal is down 1 seat.

[Anonymous User]

Pitts and Lin are probably the most highly regarded young Biden appointees on ND Cal. Whether that makes them likely to get elevated, dunno.

Agree they are the most regarded. However, it's unfortunate for them that all the northern California circuit judges are also quite young. Koh is the oldest at 56. By the time any of them take senior status, Pitts and Lin will probably be deemed too old.

I don’t think there has to be a NorCal vacancy though - Koh herself replaced Paez (who’s in Pasadena), and de Alba (EDCA) replaced Watford (Pasadena).

IMO the bigger issue is that there likely won’t be many vacancies if there is a Dem Pres/Senate in 2029 - if Gould/Wardlaw/Rawlinson continue to refuse to go senior, as they did under Biden, the only Dem appointees who will be eligible before 2032 are Murguia, Christen, and Nguyen.

Murguia would probably go senior if a Dem president could confirm her successor - of the Dem DAZ appointees, only Lanham and Desai seem plausible based on age, and Desai is out b/c his sister’s already on CA9 and there’s a rule against immediate family members being on the same court. Kelly/Gallego are both pretty conservative Dems, so Lanham’s career as a federal prosecutor might appeal to them.

With Christen, the only DAK Dem appointee (Gleason) is too old. I don’t know enough about the AK Supreme Court justices to say if they could be possible candidates. My two cents are just that if the AK senators are Peltola and Murkowski (and a Peltola win seems necessary for the Dems to win/keep the senate), I would think they might want either the first Native American/Alaskan circuit judge or someone with experience representing Native Alaskans.

Nguyen won’t be eligible to go senior until May 2030, and I think she’s unlikely to go senior less than 2 years into her term as chief.

Fair points. But given that SoCal is down 1 judge already as you noted, I have a hard time believing they will again dip into that allocation. We will see. To the original question, I've heard that both Lin and Pitts are good bosses and people should consider working for them regardless of their potential elevation.

The only CA-based CA9 judges that could go senior are Wardlaw, Callahan, and M. Smith. Each of them has particular quirks about their profile that makes it seem unlikely that Pitts or Lin would be their successor. Wardlaw, for example, has such strong SoCal ties that it wouldn't be surprising if she conditioned stepping down on maintaining that seat in Pasadena.

SoCal isn’t actually down a CA9 seat though - Koh was nominated with Sanchez and Thomas to replace Paez/Fletcher/Berzon. Koh and Sanchez sit in SF, just as Fletcher and Berzon do, while Thomas is in Pasadena like Paez. A little weird that Koh technically succeeded Paez whereas Thomas technically succeeded Fletcher, but no net change in NorCal v. SoCal seats.

I can’t see Callahan willingly going senior under a Dem (I’m honestly shocked that she hasn’t gone senior under Trump, tbh), whereas I’m pretty sure Smith has publicly said that he’ll never go senior.

Given how liberal Wardlaw is, you’d think she would’ve gone senior under Biden. In fact, an annoying number of Clinton appointees on the Ninth and elsewhere are similarly still active, which is like playing with fire given how hard it is to get a Dem majority in the senate.

Judge de Alba replaced Watford which is how SoCal is down 1 seat.

And both Padilla and Schiff are from LA.

Anyone familiar with C.D. Cal. know which of the judges there are well-regarded? Most of them will be 50+ by 2029, so my guess is that a future Dem admin would look to the state courts like they did with Sanchez/Thomas (or to MTO like they did with Owens/Friedland).